Ethereum Strongly Rebounds, Analyzing the Rise Potential of Uniswap

Recently, the price of Ethereum has risen significantly, leading to an increase in the value of several projects within its ecosystem. Historically, high-quality projects in the Ethereum ecosystem tend to show stronger growth momentum during rising cycles. As one of the important projects in the Ethereum ecosystem, Uniswap's recent performance is worth paying attention to. Under the current market conditions, Uniswap may still have room for further increases. In addition to benefiting from the overall trend of Ethereum, Uniswap also has some unique advantages, including the potential improvement of the regulatory environment, excellent performance of project business data, and the structural potential for token price increases.

1. Changes in Regulatory Environment

Between 2021 and 2023, Uniswap faced regulatory uncertainties. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) conducted an investigation into Uniswap Labs, focusing on its marketing practices and investor services. The SEC chairman has repeatedly stated that DeFi platforms may be subject to securities regulations and require more oversight. This investigation has sparked widespread discussion in the industry, particularly regarding whether governance tokens like UNI should be considered securities.

From 2023 to 2024, regulatory pressure has increased. The SEC issued a Wells notice to Uniswap Labs, accusing it of possibly operating as an unregistered securities exchange. Uniswap Labs subsequently submitted a detailed response, refuting the SEC's allegations.

Starting in 2025, the regulatory environment begins to change. The SEC announces the termination of its investigation into Uniswap Labs and will no longer pursue enforcement actions. This is seen as a significant victory for the DeFi sector. Subsequently, the SEC invites companies like Uniswap Labs to participate in cryptocurrency regulatory discussions, demonstrating a shift in regulatory attitude. The U.S. Congress also begins to discuss a new cryptocurrency regulatory framework aimed at providing a clearer legal basis for digital asset trading.

Currently, Uniswap's token economic model has significantly reduced the likelihood of facing legal risks. With the new government taking office, cryptocurrency regulatory policies are being adjusted towards a direction that better suits the industry's development. As an industry leader, Uniswap Labs has played an important advisory role in this process. In the future, more regulatory policies favorable to the industry's development may emerge.

2. Project Business Situation

1. Leading business data

Uniswap is one of the earliest and largest decentralized exchange protocols in the crypto market. Currently, its total value locked (TVL) reaches $5.12 billion, with a trading volume of $84.5 billion in the last 30 days, ranking second in the industry. The annual revenue is $929 million, placing it seventh in market rankings. From a traditional valuation perspective, Uniswap's price-to-earnings ratio is significantly lower than that of other tech giants. If it can open the "fee switch" or expand its financial application scenarios in the future, its current market value may be undervalued.

According to the financial report for the first quarter of 2025, the Uniswap Foundation holds a large amount of cash, stablecoins, and cryptocurrency assets, with a healthy financial status, and it is expected that the funds will last until January 2027.

2. Token Economics Innovation

Uniswap has been trying to improve its token economics model. In the past, UNI tokens were primarily used for providing liquidity and participating in governance, but holding UNI directly did not generate any yield. Uniswap Labs has proposed the "fee switch" multiple times, but it has not been implemented due to regulatory risks. With the improvement of the regulatory environment, there may be an opportunity to activate this feature in the future.

In addition, Uniswap's Unichain provides a new application scenario for the UNI token. Unichain is a Layer 2 network based on Optimism technology, officially launched in February 2025. It uses UNI as the staking token, and validators can earn network rewards by staking UNI. Although the official has not disclosed the specific staking scale at present, it is expected that more UNI will be used for staking as the ecosystem expands.

3. Token Performance

The current circulating market cap of UNI is $4.2 billion, with a fully diluted market cap of $6.7 billion. Approximately 37% of the tokens are in staking or locked status.

In the derivatives market, the contract open interest for UNI is $448 million, with an open interest to market cap ratio of about 10.6%. The long-short comparison is relatively balanced, but large holders tend to be long. Since the price of Ethereum has risen, the open interest for UNI has also been gradually increasing, indicating active trading in the derivatives market.

On the spot market, the price trend of UNI usually resembles that of Ether, but with greater volatility. In the recent round of Ethereum's rise, UNI's increase lagged temporarily behind Ether, which may indicate that UNI has further room for growth.

4. Conclusion

With the changing attitude of the US government towards cryptocurrency regulation, Uniswap, as a leading decentralized exchange in the industry, is attracting significant attention regarding its future development. The project has excellent business data and a good financial condition, and it is bringing new application scenarios for tokens through innovative attempts such as Unichain and fee switches. Considering the overall trend of the Ethereum ecosystem and Uniswap's own advantages, UNI may be one of the investment targets worth paying attention to.