Newbies playing with coins should remember: a real bull run is never a straight rise; instead, there will be several major corrections - but the risks and opportunities during different stages of corrections vary greatly, it's not too late to understand this now.
First, clarify these three key stages; each stage has very distinct characteristics:
The first stage is the initial adjustment.
The decline was significant and took a long time, for example, Ethereum fell from 4800 to 3400 dollars, a drop of nearly 30%, and it consolidated for 20 days.
At this time, most people are panicking, either too afraid to enter the market or rushing to cut losses due to fear of further declines. In fact, this is the "washing out" of the initial stage of the bull run, clearing out the weak-handed investors.
The second phase is the mid-term adjustment.
The time is short but the drop is not small, possibly falling by 15%-20%. After the drop, everyone may be more willing to be bullish.
Just like how SOL dropped from $220 to $180 a while ago, it rebounded back and even broke new highs in just 5 days. At that time, there were many voices saying "adjustment is a buying opportunity," making it easy for newbies to jump in.
The third phase is the final adjustment, which is also the most dangerous.
It looks similar to the last two times, but once it falls, it could enter a bear market and continue to drop without looking back.
But everyone will have "inertia thinking" - thinking that after previous adjustments there has been a rise, this time will be the same, and instead dare to go all in to catch the bottom, ultimately getting deeply trapped.
Considering the current market: There were earlier comments about low leverage sentiment and slowing institutional funds. Now, market fluctuations are becoming increasingly abnormal, with neither the "collective panic" seen during the initial adjustment nor the "unified bullishness" after the mid-term adjustment. Instead, there is more hesitation --- at this point, Newbies should avoid making random guesses.
First, remember practical tips:
Look at the turnover rate:
As the turnover rate lowers during adjustments, it is highly likely to be an early stage washout; if the turnover rate suddenly increases while the price drops, one must be wary of late-stage risks.
Don't believe in "steady rise":
Regardless of whether others say "after the adjustment, it will definitely break new highs" or "this is the last chance to get on board", do not go all in, at most try using 30% of your position.
Leave an escape route:
As mentioned before, cold wallets store mainstream coins and separate living funds. Even if the judgment is wrong, the principal will not be completely lost.
What do you think the current stage is? In fact, there is no need to rush to conclusions. What a Newbie should do is not to guess the stage, but to stick to the bottom line of operation -- not being greedy, not over-leveraging, and not following the crowd is more important than anything else.